The results are in: Israel hates itself

According to Wikipedia the results of the Knesset elections show a substantial pick up for the far right, though surprisingly (for a large part of the race) not enough to be the biggest party, which is still, thankfully, Kadima. Unfortunately, Labour has lost a ton of votes to Yisrael Beiteinu and right-wing religious parties, giving it an embarrassing fourth place in total seats behind Kadima, Likud, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Absentee and IDF votes have not yet been counted, and in 2006 these votes gave Likud one extra seat which essentially let Netanyahu remain relevant enough to potentially be Prime Minister in this election.

Now, I don't know what's probably going to happen, because I don't live in Israel and I am not a political analyst. However, I do know how to be both alarmist and absurdly optimistic, so that is what I will now do. Keep in mind that the actual result will be somewhere in between these two projections.

Brief Israeli civics lesson: The Knesset has 120 seats, assigned through direct proportion to the various parties. 61 seats is technically a majority. It's rare that any one party gets more than 30 seats, so the government of Israel is always made up of volatile coalitions in which the major parties have a knife held to their neck by the smaller special interest parties. In this election, interestingly the quintessentially special-interest Pensioners' Party has gone from seven seats to zero seats, and I like to think that Yisrael Beiteinu got all its extra votes from the old retirees who used to vote for the Pensioners (though that's not actually true, as I will explain later.)

Alarmist: As it currently stands, Kadima (28) + Labour (13) + left-wing Israeli parties (7) = 48 seats in a potential "centrist-left" coalition. If Livni were to allow the Arab parties to participate in this coalition (and the Arab parties are pragmatic enough to realize that that is, while still terrible, their best option, as not helping Kadima would mean at best no chance of negotiating with Palestine and at worst the forced expulsion of Isralei Arab citizens if Lieberman has his way), the "centrist-left-Arab" coalition would have seven more seats, bringing it to a total of 55 if my math is correct. This is not enough for a coalition, and I don't even know if letting Arab parties into such a coalition is at all feasible in current Israeli politics. Anyway, given that, if Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu were to combine forces, they would right off the bat have 42 seats, compared to the 41 that Kadima and Labour would hold without considering the far left parties. From that 42, it is very easy to see Netanyahu and Lieberman (in some sort of high-ranking cabinet position) letting in Shas, the right-wing religious-nationalist party, bringing them to 53, and then letting in the other right wing religious parties (Jewish Home, National Union, and United Torah Judaism) to bring their coalition to 65. If that were to happen, it could potentially mean that Israel, probably for the first time in history, would have a more right-wing government than the United States, and could potentially destroy any prospect of negotiation with Hamas under this Knesset. I don't think I need to explain why this would be a disaster. If Livni wants to be Prime Minister, she would probably need to court one or two of the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, which would result in the left-wing parties not being able to do much about domestic issues and ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel remaining first-class citizens who do not pay taxes and do not serve in the army.

Absurdly Optimistic: The left-wing coalition courts a few of the more moderate MKs from Likud and then takes on a smaller ultra-Orthodox party to form a majority coalition. Lieberman is pushed aside and his party is marginalized. Nothing really gets done until the next election.

Anyway, apparently a lot of Israelis are very upset over the surge in right-wing power. A friend of mine lives across the street from Netanyahu (or "Bibi" as he is known is Israel) and apparently her day (which is spent in the home rearing children, because she is religious) is filled with vulgar shouting from across the street aimed at Bibi's house. This is welcome news.