My Take on Israel Now: Because Jews Can't Keep Their Goddamn Mouths Shut Like Jesus Wants Them To, Fuckin' Christ

So, I don't want to read Ben's post. In order to mollify my ebbing guilt for this, I will make another post on Israel.

You might have heard that a couple things have happened lately. The important ones are, in order:

a) Israel and Hamas declared a cease-fire
b) Barack Obama became President of the United States (who knew?)
c) Barack Obama had group phone sex (I believe these are known as "conference balls") with PM Olmert, President Mubarak, King Abdullah II, and PM Abbas.
d) The most recent poll shows that Kadima and Friends (i.e. centre-left and on) losing seats in the Knesset, with Likud gaining a couple and wackjobs gaining more than they're supposed to
e) Hamas has issued a statement saying that Obama has "poopypants" and does not represent real change from his predecessor (predecessor? When did that happen?)

So what is the relationship between these?

a) and b) are easy. Israel realized that a big, scary black man named Hussein (or a liberal) is going to be President and it's probably a good idea to start off on the right foot with him, by not murdering innocent civilians on what's supposed to be his special day. At the same time, Hamas realized that a American politician is going to be President, do it's a good idea if they stop inconveniencing the lives of Israelis or they're never going to get anywhere. Of course, lets remember that in most Semitic languages (and maybe Dan can back me up on this) "cease fire" carries the connotation of "a six-year-old promising that his smaller friend can play Pokemon just after this fight while snickering and holding his crossed fingers behind his back," which is largely lost in translation. So just like last time the "ceasefire" was "broken," it's not a good idea to say that the first side to land a projectile is the one that did it (as has, frankly, often been said, particularly on our beloved campus. Listen, people: it doesn't matter who "breaks the ceasefire" if fire never ceased.) So, "liberal in White House" plus "America not having undergone hostile foreign takeover" means "ceasefire." It's not complicated, though my misguided quips and garbled analogies may make it seem to be.

b) and c), Obama is gettin' shit done. Good for him. I'm not sure phone sex is part of the Road Map, but it couldn't hurt, right? Note, however, that Hamas was not involved. Remember: Obama is still American, according to his altered birth certificate.

Now we get into the scary stuff: c) and d). Now, I hesitate to talk about polls without Nate Silver here to hold my hand, but this does not look good; something in the Israeli water (rockets, maybe?) is making people shift right. As the article points out, this is early, and Netanyahu has apparently been doing all sorts of publicity stuff like unveiling sexy new personalities for his cabinet and bungee jumping off a helicopter into a Palestinian home to steal bread, so this might be like when John McCain was ahead way back when, and I'm sure we all remember how scary though short-lived that was (if you were reading 538.com as religiously as I was.) But it also might not. In short: scary at best, and hopefully not too intimately connected with b) and c). If the Israeli public doesn't like Obama for some reason, that is not going to make them any cuddlier internationally.

And e). This seems like a standard thing that any extremist group America doesn't like is going to send out after an election. It's hard to believe that Hamas isn't ecstatic over Obama not wanting to shoot Ahmedinejad with a hunting rifle from Kmart, considering that if anything bad happens to Iran Hamas'll have to rely on Syria for arms, and those guys totally bogart. I also don't think that Hamas expects Obama to like them. So, yes, this is probably standard boilerplate, although it might have something to do with wanting to launch more rockets.