Monday, March 30, 2009

news from the financial front

from the times, this story is about banks refusing to assume control of foreclosed properties. apparently, the cost of upkeep and repair is greater than the value of a large (but unspecified) number of homes. is this good or bad? on the one hand, the former owners now have outright control. from a moral point of view, that's a more palatable situation than half of american houses going on citi and bank of america's books. on the other hand, the reason for the foreclosures was, ostensibly, the insolvency of the individuals involved. handing the property over to them leaves them with cost of maintenance. the article mentions that some municipal authorities are bulldozing unforeclosed (is that even a word?) houses because of the disrepair into which they've fallen. the mortgager is also technically liable for mortgage payments. because of the difficulty in locating the actual owner of the mortgage--who knows how many times each deed has been packaged and resold?--however, there isn't anyone to make the mortgage payments to, even if it was possible to make those payments in the first place. honestly, this whole mess is just plain bizarre. we can't even establish property ownership anymore? does that, uh, mean that we're communists?

Chris Hitchens and the Critical Beatdown


About a month back, a strange rumour stumbled its way across the blogosphere. In various tellings, none of which made a great deal of sense to me, it was recounted that Christopher Hitchens, after a long night of drinking in Beirut, found a political sign with a swastika on it, defaced it, and was subsequently embroiled in a massive throwdown with a series of Lebanese fascists, going punch for punch like any good journalist. The real story, alas, is far less epic. Hitchens does deface the sign, and is approached by two thugs who see him. Then:
We hail a cab and start to get in, but one of our assailants gets in also, and the driver seems to know intimidation only too well when he sees it. We retreat to a stretch of sidewalk outside a Costa café, and suddenly I am sprawled on the ground, having been hit from behind, and someone is putting the leather into my legs and flanks. At this point the crowd in the café begins to shout at the hoodlums, which unnerves them long enough for us to stop another cab and pull away. My shirt is spattered with blood, but I’m in no pain yet: the nastiest moment is just ahead of me. As the taxi accelerates, a face looms at the open window and a fist crashes through and connects with my cheekbone. The blow isn’t so hard, but the contorted, glaring, fanatical face is a horror show, a vision from hell. It’s like looking down a wobbling gun barrel, or into the eyes of a torturer. I can see it still.
The story is definitely worth reading in full, for two reasons. One is Christopher Hitchens. Yes, he can be an asshole, and he's made some terrible calls in the past (supporting the War in Iraq looms largest, alongside the aggressive atheism thing), but articles like this remind me that he is a very principled man and his opinions, right or wrong, stem from those principles before anything else. He's also a very good writer, and his ideological perspective doesn't fit very well anywhere on the modern American political spectrum, meaning that he still gets it right 50% of the time.

The second reason the piece is worth reading is because it's about Lebanon. Late last year, The Atlantic published a fairly upsetting article about the UN investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the widely beloved former Prime Minister of Lebanon. He was blown up, along with 22 other people, in 2005, and the investigation, which followed on a demand by the UN that Syria withdraw its forces from Lebanon, is getting closer and closer to a predictable yet politically dangerous conclusion: the Syrian government had him axed, along with a string of other nationalist Lebanese politicians. Hitchens notes that, as of now, four Lebanese generals with ties to Syria have been arrested and are slated to be tried in a UN tribunal at The Hague. What happens next, obviously, will have significant effects on the region. Many Lebanese want justice, but it's clear that this may in turn threaten Syria, which in turn will antagonize Iran, and the current strategic climate suggests that the international community will try very very hard not to antagonize Iran, at least until they accede to the NPT or show convincing signs of dismantling their nuclear program. This is all a very big shame because, as Hitchens shows it, Lebanon still is a pluralistic and somewhat moderate country within a pretty hostile region. They could serve as an exemplary model of how a federalist system can restrain and balance sectarian impulses peacefully, and serve as a goal for reformers in other parts of the Middle East to shoot for. Who knows what will happen, though, if/when the international community opts not to act on conclusive evidence that Syria is still, in violation of a UN mandate, meddling in Lebanese affairs - Syria may be emboldened to hop back in, Lebanon may take steps on its own, etc. Even if nothing significant comes of the process, it will be just more evidence, to those who want to look for it, that the West is in the business of selectively meting out justice, only when it is convenient to do so.

Friday, March 27, 2009

"The Biggest Travesty of Capitalism"

Maybe my last post was neither as informative nor as insightful it could have been. And maybe I'm already too late to lay out the details of the new Geithner Plan, the so-called Private-Public Investment Fund. It's been about a week now since its release, so maybe you've all already had plenty of time to read about it, and to decipher it and to decide whether or not you give it the thumbs up or the thumbs down.

But in case you haven't, here's what the thing is in simple, non-metaphorical or narrative terms.

Background:*

Banks have assets which they have purchased and which are no longer worth as much as they were once deemed to be by those expert few who buy and sell them. What are these assets? Essentially, these assets are loans. Perhaps the bank has made this loan directly to a borrower or perhaps the bank has purchased the loan from another bank. In any event, the underlying value of the asset is based on whether or not the borrower who accepted that loan actually pays the loan back with interest. If he or she does, the asset is fairly valuable. If not, then the asset is worthless. In reality, things get a bit more complicated since these assets are not one loan, but many many different segments of many many different loans. But that basic principle--the perceived reliability of the borrower determines the percieved value of the asset--holds.

The banks do not wish to sell these assets at prices that are too low because, having purchased so many of them, were the banks to sell them at these low prices, they wouldn't have enough money to pay off their debt and their shareholders. Such a condition is called bankruptcy and it is generally to be avoided if you are a bank.

Unfortunately, those who generally buy these assets just aren't at the moment. After a year's worth of news coverage detailing how these particular assets are really, really bad (that is, the borrowers who took out these loans are not so likely to pay them back anymore), investors have gotten it into their heads that these assets are really, really bad.

So this the problem which the Geither Plan seeks to fix. The banks won't sell at the prices being offered by the buyers. And even where buyers want to buy at higher prices, most people are so nervous about lending money these days that those aforementioned potential buyers can't easily or affordably borrow the money required to buy enough of these assets to make the whole deal worth it.

The Plan:

First, the Geithner plan sets about establishing a price for these assets. Right now, buyers are offering $30 while the banks are claiming $90.** There is a giant gap between the former and latter and in the meantime, no assets are being sold, banks are unable to loan and the credit market stands still. The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, a government agency) has therefore been instructed to go to major banks and offer to hold an auction for the assets which the banks cannot sell. If the bank agrees, an auction is held in which an agreed upon list of private investors bid on the price of the asset. Like any auction, the highest price is selected and the private investor is given the oppurtunity to buy the asset (or asset pool) from the bank at the chosen price. The bank obviously must agree to this price.

Assuming a price is agreed upon, the investor buys the asset. Why would this investor buy assets which he or she or it was not willing to buy without the auction? Because Uncle Sam is offering a little help. First, the FDIC is offering the investor an enormous loan. How enormous? The loan may be up to (though is not necessarily) 6 times the number of dollars actually invested. So, given the 6 to 1 example, if the auction price of the asset is selected at $84, only $14 need be invested while the FDIC coughs up the remaining $70.

But wait, hesitant investor: it get's even better! The Department of Treasury is so eager to make this deal, it has agreed to invest along with you, dollar for dollar. So in the above example, all you need to do is put down $7 for the $84 asset. The Treasury invests $7 too, and the FDIC provides the rest as a loan. And a very reasonable loan at that. Not only will the interest charged be lower than anything else you're likely to find, it will be considered a non-recourse loan. This means that if the borrower is unable to pay back the loan, the lender is limited in its recovery of the lent money to seizing the underlying asset. For instance, mortgages in the United States are non-recourse; if a home-owner is unable to pay back his or her debt to the bank, the bank can take the house for which the mortgage was written. But if the value of the house is not enough to pay back the bank in full, the bank cannot then go after bits and pieces of your property and income. In case of the PPIP, if the private investor puts down $7 to buy the $84 and then is subsequently only able to sell the asset for $50, the investor (and the Treasury) have lost the entiretly of his investment. Not only will they not be able to recover their $7, but they will not be able to pay back $20 of their debt to the FDIC. Too bad for the FDIC, who gets the $50 asset to sell and pay itself back, but that's it.

So this is the reason that the United States government has provided to investors to buy risky assets that they otherwise wouldn't. In the worst of cases for the investor, he or she or it loses the initial $7 investment (only 8% of the actual value of the loan, which is a leverage deal about 6 times better than you can get on the New York Stock Exchange), whereas the best scenario (the so-called "upside of the deal") rewards them with infinite possibilities. As one might expect, the potential payoff distribution for the FDIC is a mirror image of that for the private investor. If the auction price for an asset turns out to be much higher than the assets actual value, the FDIC picks up the tab. If, on the other hand, the auction price turns out to be a good bet (that is, the loans backing the assets preform at or above that price), the FDIC gets its money back with much less interest than it could have otherwise gotten and perhaps a fee.

The Feature Presentation:

If the above explanation didn't make much sense (or you prefer visual presentations anyway), the video below has many a bell and whistle which my humble attempt at a summary so transparently lack.

If you'd prefer not to, I'd really recommend skipping to the 6:25 mark; the following content provided the impetus for this post. Salman Khan, the person who put the film together, outlines just how easily (and thus inevitably) most of the participating banks will be able to scam the system.***





*I apologize if I'm just repeating what a lot of people already know.

**these numbers are just illustrative though I think roughly accurate. Also, they are based on the assumption that $100 is the value of the asset if every borrower were guarenteed to pay back their loans.

***When he talks about public loans coming from the Fed, he means the FDIC. I'm not sure why he missed this distinction, but it's an important one. The FDIC's principal revenue source comes from charging insurance fees to all depository banks. In other words, if the the FDIC ends up getting screwed in order to bail out the banks, its likely that a lot of that cost are going to end up biting the entire banking system in the ass with increased FDIC charges. But then again, Congress can always just give the FDIC more money like it did a few weeks ago, so maybe that's naive.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

The Handyman's Tale

The newest "Save-the-Banks" plan has been circulating the Internet with varying degrees of official sanction for a few days now, but I've so far held off on posting about it because a) I wanted to make sure I understood the gist of it, b) I wanted to make sure the more informed from whom I steal my opinions had time to understand the gist of it, and c) I'm generally getting a little bored of the whole "here's another trillion dollar plan that is just as indispensable and sure to work as the other trillion dollar plan and come on you know it's totally different this time" routine.

But after much back-and-forth over the new Geithner plan (more back than forth, I've noticed), here's what it comes down to: the government is going to buy the so-called "toxic" assets from the banks.

If you think that sounds an awful lot like the first Paulson plan in which the government was also going to buy the so-called "toxic" assets from the banks, that's because you're a philistine and do not properly understand the intricacies of modern finance.

Let me illustrate with a really shitty parable*:

Once upon a time, the house we all call America faced a terrible trouble. While in golden days past water had flown through its pipes cool, sweet, and abundant, now there was nothing for those who thirsted for that salubrious liquid(ity) but dust from the tap and a terrible groaning behind the walls.
At the end of their collective wits, the residents of America called Plumber Paulson to investigate. After negotiating a handsome fee, Plumber Paulson determined that America's pipes were blocked most terribly.

"But what is it that blocks our pipes so?" cried the denizens of America house. "Surely it must be the waste which we have been depositing there for near-now a decade with reckless abandon!"

"Heavens no!" Plumber Paulson chortled with giddy amusement. "It is not feces that impedes the flow of your pipes, but gold! Pure, unadulterated gold! And, for a handsome fee, I shall put very much of your money down the toilet and in doing so dislodge that gold which I can then place upon your mantle for all to enjoy."

Rejecting Plumber Paulson's scheme as an absurdity, the Americans sought another opinion on the matter. Finding Handyman Geithner available, they brought him into America house to examine the pipes. After much careful consideration and deliberation (in which time the plumbing system began to back up quite aggressively and with disagreeable results for everyone), Handyman Geithner summoned the residents of America house and announced his plan. The room was hushed and with much empathy and warmth in his eyes, Handyman Geithner spoke:

"I have concluded that it is not feces that impedes the flow of your pipes, but gold! And, for a handsome fee, I shall put very much of your money--"

But before the handyman could finish, there was an uproar amongst the people of America house. Perplexed and wounded, Handyman Geithner waved his hands and plead for time to explain further.

"You see, my plan is quite different from Plumber Paulson's. If you only you will hear of it in its entirety."

Suspicious though they were, the Americans were nonetheless a reasonable group of people, and so allowed Handyman Geithner to continue.

"As I was saying," the handyman said with evident irritation and hurt-feelings, "For a handsome fee, I shall put very much of your money into the hands of a dear friend of mine Fund Manager Chad who will in turn retrieve that gold and, after taking a handsome fee, will place it upon your mantle for all to enjoy."

Recognizing that the plan was indeed quite different, the Americans were nonetheless confused by such complicated matters. "But what if the blockage is not gold, but waste as we have assumed all along?" One asked incredulously." We do would not then want it to be placed upon our mantle."

"And what of your dear friend Fund Manager Chad?" Another asked. "What shall happen if he does not use the money in an effective manner? Will he still be rewarded a fee, and if so, who is to pay it?"

But Handyman Geithner simply laughed with much merriment. "Leave the details to me," he said with confidence and a wave of the hand. "I know what I'm doing."

*For an actual explanation, click here.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

A country in extremis

It was while applying for a job with a certain socialist party active in New York City that I came across a piece of information for which I have no words. There is a number, prominent in econometrics, known as the Gini coefficient (named for Italian statistician Corrado Gini) which serves as a standard metric of income inequality. The GC is a binary variable (0 is equality, 1 is inequality), equivalent to the area between the Lorenz curve and what is known as the line of equality (f(x)=y) divided by the total area under the line of equality. The Lorenz curve itself measures income distribution, where x is a percentage measure of households and y is a percentage share of income. The Gini coefficient thus effectively reports how far a certain country's income distribution differs from a situation of perfect equality.

As of 2004, Sierra Leone was, by Gini measure, the least equal country on earth, with a score of 62.9. That should be unsurprising to anyone who's kept even a toe in the news over the past few years. Along with Japan and the Czech Republic, the usual suspects, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, hover around most equal, with coefficients in the mid-twenties. With these as benchmarks, it should be an outrage to each and every American to learn that the United States has more in common, in terms of income distribution, with an African nation devastated by a sometimes cannibalistic civil war fought largely by child soldiers, than those stable, usually just, socially generous and therefore widely-admired Scandinavian democracies. With a score of 43.2, the United States has beaten the absolutist regime of Turkmenistan for unevenness in the distribution of national wealth. The fury I feel at this number is overwhelming, since I've spent some time becoming familiar with the mind-numbing brutality of Central Asian politics. I have a very vivid picture of what life in these former Soviet Socialist Republics is like. Uzbekistan, whose mentally depreciated ruler, Islam Karmimov, has been known to boil political dissidents alive, may take the cake for most nauseating regime in the region, but Turkmenistan is maintaining a close, if not narrowing, second, if only due to its extreme and enforced isolation. Uzbekistan's largest city, Tashkent, has the honor of being the largest in the region, and, as such, is somewhat difficult for authoritarians in the present regime to keep under control. Turkmenistan, by contrast, is so sparsely populated that its faux-Napoleon, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, has kept contact with the outside world to a minimum comparable to the trickle that passes through a pin-prick in a water balloon. Beating Turkmenistan's inequality score is, in other words, more than embarrassing: it's simply atrocious. How did this come to pass?

I believe it was Will Rogers who thought up the phrase 'trickle down', but, certainly, the driving force behind bringing it into unquestionable existence was solely the Republican party circa 1980. It was with Ronald Reagan as a frontman, of course, that the party sold Americans on the idea of slashing tax rates on the highest income brackets. What was the philosophy that underpinned Reagan's supply-side economics, as it continues to do so today? I've spent a good deal of time researching the answer, in the hopes of finding something more compelling than my own knee-jerk assumptions, but I've come across nothing, really, to contradict them. It seems that the layman's take is accurate enough: give money to the rich in the form of tax cuts and they will reinvest it in businesses, thus creating more labor demand and raising wages across all income percentiles. The phrase 'a rising tide lifts all boats', now all too familiar, sums up quite accurately this philosophy, though it misses the fact that some boats will be five-hundred times bigger than others, and that they will therefore control far more of the water and so be able to bully far more boats than others can. That was the part of the message that was not advertised by the new Republican party, and for good reason. Had Americans known how bad the deal was that they were being offered, there was a good chance that they would've rejected it out of hand.

And now, thirty years on, we are faced with the incontrovertible fact that all the rhetoric really was just a scam. Of course, it wasn't as if no one at the time said anything to challenge it. The Gini coefficient, for example, has been around for almost a hundred years, and during that time, the accuracy and quantity of data available to apply it to has grown exponentially. It was also probably simple common sense to many in 1980 that the New Right's revolution was really just a poorly-disguised coup, one meant to unseat the radicalism of the 60's and 70's and the earlier social provisions of Roosevelt's New Deal, thereby reinstating a strictly hierarchical economic and political order. The Republicans were, in the stagnant economic climate of the 70's, offered the chance of a political lifetime, and they jumped on it like rabid wolverines. Now we, the children of their revolution, are living the consequences. I think that I'm not alone in recognizing how unjust those consequences are.

What happened? In 1980, our income distribution had a Gini coefficient of 36.5, not so much higher than that of other 'developed' nations. Today, we rank alongside blatant plutocracies and vicious totalitarian regimes for how unevenly we have spread our national wealth. Nothing else, I think, characterizes the America of the past thirty than this degree of inequality. I know that fact viscerally. Though people are no doubt tired of hearing it from me, New York City is the absolutely unchallenged exemplar of what has been an unstoppable trend in the nature of the American economy for the past three decades. As this article in the New York Times attests, the richest in New York County make $365,826 a year and the poorest, $7,047. I don't think I need to say anything about those numbers. I trust the intuition of my readers, and the orientation of their moral compasses, to assess just how brutal a difference like that could make life for the poor on an island no more than 22.96 square miles in area.

In 1980 (though I have no statistics on which to base this assumption) such an unbridgeable gap would've been unthinkable. The poor were unquestionably in the majority, and the rich were silent, inconspicuous, and afraid. Today, the poor of New York, just like the poor of every other state, have been abandoned and effectively do not exist. The front page of any major newspaper is enough to fill anyone with even an inkling of what life is like for 'the other America' with despair. Everywhere, the achievements of the 'young' and the 'creative' are lauded, and no attention is paid to the total marginalization of the lowest income quartile. The crumbling ruins of rural and urban America, those places that were left to the poor, have disappeared from the national consciousness as wave upon wave of young, suburban-born, upper middle-class whites rises to command every outlet of media. Raised with Gilded Age values, this cohort has internalized economic hierarchy, so that its primary concern has been constructing for itself a closed community catering to in-group tastes and, more importantly, in-group financial security. The result has been to inflate the poor out of existence. The Census Bureau, for example, reports a dramatic increase between 2000 and 2008 in the number of residents of Brooklyn who hold Bachelor's degrees. Of those residents, 41% are white, 36% black and 20% Hispanic (as census categories, white and Hispanic overlap, meaning that the number of non-Hispanic whites is even lower). While for years the number of whites in Brooklyn has declined precipitously, in the last ten years that trend has begun to reverse. Who are these whites, and where do they come from? Only 24.8% of foreign-born residents in Brooklyn are of 'European' ancestry, and the majority of these are Eastern Europeans moving into Slavic enclaves in Greenpoint and Sheepshead Bay. The new white Brooklynite is American and is rich: from 1980 to 2000, the 290% increase in the number of households making more than $150,000 a year is captured almost entirely by this group. They are also, not coincidentally, almost all college graduates. As for the non-white population? Levels of tertiary education have remained flat. Of course, administrators and elected officials have called this a great victory and have tried to keep it going, allowing an even greater flood of already well-off migrants into disadvantaged areas, so that the same pattern continues, year-on-year, further marginalizing the poor. It should be no surprise, then, that from 1990 until now, the neighborhoods with the fastest growing black and Hispanic populations, Canarsie and East New York, are not only as far from Manhattan as one can be in the borough, but are also statistically the most grim.

I'm not going to rant about gentrification--I've done that enough before. What I'm trying to convey is the insidiousness of economic inequality. It is more than an issue of unequal access to consumer goods or housing. Inequality is a death sentence for democracy. Fundamentally, political systems are differentiated by how they distribute power. The very fact that our political terminology uses the Greek suffix kratos (power) is an indication of how fundamental the idea is to our very conception of politics. In a democracy, we expect power to be as widely distributed as it can functionally be, that is, that the amount of power held by one person varies only within a narrow margin relative that of another. The merit of such a political system is that it denies a single individual the ability to reach a high degree of utility at the expense of another's well-being. In a democracy, it is ostensibly the rule that one cannot, for instance, put another to death for petty reasons, nor compromise their livelihood or the means by which they secure it. That is the meaning of the phrase 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness'. The benefit to us is of course personal, as well as familial and communal security, but it is also something more: a powerful psychological guarantee of agency, the promise that no one will ever run into insurmountable barriers to the maintenance of their well-being. That guarantee has been compelling enough for men to risk, and too often lose, their lives in pursuit of it.

But something happened in 1980, something that I am unable to explain and, having been born and raised after the fact, unable to imagine. Somehow, the idea that individual success was not contingent on the utility of others became extremely fashionable. So masses of Americans, and indeed masses of those who followed their example, adopted the view that political decisions which were deemed to disadvantage them in any conceivable way, or in any conceivable future way, were unacceptable. Tax increases, always controversial, became downright unacceptable, even if they were explicitly targeted at a tax bracket which only 5% of Americans had attained. As long as the potential theoretically existed for you to be in the top 5%, even if that possibility remained utterly remote, it was common sense that policies which were aimed at curtailing personal wealth were affronts to each and every individual American. As long as a certain class of people--a very wealthy class--could convince the vast majority of decidedly non-wealthy people that there was the chance that they might hit the jackpot, politics turned away from its post-New Deal progressive agenda towards what was in essence a casino scam. It was a scam, one that convinced huge numbers of people not only that they would be fabulously wealthy, but that they should be. If you were going to get rich, why care about the Gini coefficient? The poor were, as the Social Darwinists of the nineteenth-century had maintained, losers. Why blame you for being successful just because they weren't?

Now, of course, it's time to pay the piper, and everyone is looking for a scapegoat--Wall Street, Washington, China, anything. We haven't yet confessed our part in the crime. While everyone is willing to concede that greed somehow brought us to the brink, few admit that it was their own greed--their own belief that they could be rich, no matter what--and their willingness to empower politicians who valorized it--that was ultimately responsible. Comedy Central's 'The Daily Show', while ripping into financial news networks two weeks ago, played a clip in which a certain broadcaster affiliated with CNBC jeered at the idea of bailing out struggling homeowners while on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and with the vocal support of the traders around him. The response to the clip was predictable, and not entirely unjustified: the audience booed, Jon Stewart laid into the fatcats, and eventually CNBC hauled out one of its personalities kicking and screaming to shoulder the blame. Many, of course, felt rightfully angry at the hubris of the 'investment class'. Many more, unfortunately, were looking for somebody to tar and feather for bursting the bubble that they themselves had helped to inflate.

It is absolutely unquestionable that the financial industry--and the many MBA- and business degree-totting 20-year-olds who staffed it --engaged in criminal activities and deserve severe punishment under the legal statutes of this republic. To say, however, that our downturn is merely the fault of a few thousand business-school graduates working in the Financial District is to show willful ignorance of the more important cultural truth now at issue. America is not, and has not been for many years, a country of nose-to-the-grindstone productivity married to Protestant thrift. Americans are debtors; we possess a set of skills only useful when economic surplus in industrially active nations has reached a point at which it can begin to be invested in our services. For decades we have been told by others, and have told ourselves, that it was not only economically smart, but far more prestigious, to work towards an occupation which had as its outcome no physical product. The sprawl of strip malls and, in cities, 'creative' industries, such as restaurants and boutique retail outlets, should serve as ample evidence that the only outcome of this 'economic revolution' was a people valuable solely as servants. We took orders for a very limited set of tasks and delivered what was requested, but at no point in that process did we produce a substantial material product. Now, with the requisite surplus, for so long provided by Asian and Middle Eastern capital, gone, we have been forced to face reality: the world does not need as many 'information technicians' and service workers as we believed.

Now, what, you ask, has any of this to do with inequality and the distributive framework of power? Simply put, service jobs are the foundation of unequal decision-making. The average service wage, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, is $11.36 an hour, the lowest average wage among all categories of occupations studied by the BLS. The Census Bureau says that 70% of economic activity is classified under the service sector. In other words, a very large number of Americans work in a sector that has only a marginal economic return. In addition, that sector is only 11.6% unionized. Service workers therefore have very little power in the workplace, and even less, given their income potential, in the market. They are marginalized political actors. It is no wonder, then, that American electoral results have been skewed towards issues which claim more emotional than intellectual resonance: people have been looking for easy outlets for their frustrations, and they've found them in the moral struggles engineered by opportunists in right-wing parties. The double-trap of inequality is that as it worsens, it weakens the basis upon which a successful redistributive campaign could be based. What results is the situation of today, in which a large segment of the enfranchised American population is unable to discern, when voting, between members of the political class who do, and do not, represent their interests.

I don't think that there is any accident or cultural idiosyncrasy behind success of Scandinavian democracy. Sweden's restructuring of its banking industry in 1991 is an excellent example of a difficult and costly process that was handled with public interests upheld over private. It was also ultimately profitable for taxpayers. It is, of course, an old rhetorical device--as old as Tacitus's Germania, at least--to criticize one's own society by praising another's. There are obviously plenty of problems in Scandinavia that Scandinavians have not yet arrived at proper solutions for, and it would be silly to ignore them. I cannot, however, ignore the fact that the distance between our level of income distribution and Sweden's is as strikingly similar to the distance between the inefficient workings of our public institutions, and the dull-witted responsiveness of our public, and the diametrically opposed workings and wittedness of them and theirs. If there is any issue that the Democrats could use to redefine themselves as a party--and God knows they need a spine, in the wake of the Bush years--income inequality seems to fit the times. One can only hope that the same class that brought us the current disparity is not the same one that has been elected to fix it.

Canada: Not Much Better

As I'm sure we all know, there is nothing Canadians enjoy more than gloating about stupid Americans. It's a national pastime; as much as it can be said that there is a pan-Canadian identity (rather than a series of weak regional ones), looking down upon our neighbours is a central component of it. Throughout the height of the Bush era (2003-2006), Canadian left-wingers (myself included) patted ourselves on the backs loudly for steering clear of the various ills of the American empire - foreign adventurism, religious zealotry, hyper-exaggerated rhetoric, etc. It was a nice fantasy, I suppose, that we could try and define ourselves as a culture by throwing out the worst excesses of the United States and keeping the rest: America, but without all the fat.

Editorials like this
remind me that, no matter how much I wish it weren't so, we aren't so different after all. The story starts here, an article published on the front page of the Globe and Mail that calls out Gary Goodyear, Canada's Minister of State for Science and Technology, for repeatedly dodging the question of whether he believes in evolution or not. When asked flat out, here's what he said:
“I'm not going to answer that question. I am a Christian, and I don't think anybody asking a question about my religion is appropriate”

The article, understandably, got people talking on both sides, especially as the Harper budget that was passed this January contained sizable cuts to scientific research funding.

Now, having a science minister, in charge of doling out money for research, who doesn't believe in a fundamental scientific concept, would be pretty bad. And he must have been the target of some substantial pressure to walk away from his statements, because not long after he "clarified" that he did, in fact, believe in evolution (although he argued that this was "irrelevant"). That's somewhat relieving, and if the story ended there I think I could brush this whole thing off as an aberration from the norm of Canadian sensibility and rationalism - I don't know enough about Goodyear to know if he does or doesn't believe in evolution, but at least there was a strong enough push-back to his comments that he felt he had to respond. Alas, I then opened Jonathan Kay's editorial (linked above), which immediately jumps into the debate with this:
In a 2007 poll, 26% of respondents said they believe in creationism, 29% picked evolution, and 34% said they believe in some combination of the two.
The rest of the editorial is infuriating (he argues that the original G&M piece was a puffed-up hit-job by the liberal media and that evolution is a minority-held belief and therefore those who demand it be supported publicly are "militant"), but whatever, it's pretty standard fare when it comes to political back-and-forth. The poll, though, the poll is scary. Assuming the poll was fishy, I looked it up, only to upset myself more:
Asked to choose the statement which "comes closest" to their views, 26 percent of those polled said: "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." Another 29 percent declared: "Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process." The largest group (34 percent) held a middle position: "Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process."
I should note that the survey only had a sample size of 1,000 people, and that 11% of those interviewed gave some answer that was excluded entirely by the pollsters, but still. The last 10,000 years? That's some fucked-up shit.

Friday, March 20, 2009

The Most Moral Army in the World

If this were Blossom I would say "no duh!"

Does anyone except hard-core Israel supporters really believe that 18 to 22-year-old men (and women, but mostly men), given large guns and a license to kill, will not do unspeakable things? Particularly when many of those young men are motivated not least by religious and nationalistic zeal? Jesus Christ, people: war is hell.

I am not about to trivialize this development. Though everyone should already have known that Israeli soldiers performed "abuses," an actual document illustrating actual abuses is very important,* and hopefully it will lead to some sort of public addressing of the issue on the part of the Chief of Staff, which may or may not actually fix anything, because there will still be 18 to 22-year-old men with large guns and licenses to kill.

This story, however, doesn't mean shit. It is along identical lines as "who broke the cease-fire" or "who is to blame." These questions are meaningless. It doesn't take a genius to realize that armies do bad things. It doesn't take a genius to realize that terrorist organizations do bad things. 1300 dead Palestinians: how many were murdered in cold blood by Israeli monsters, how many were thrown in front of a gun barrel by Hamas to protect a stockpile of Qassams or to attract a reporter's attention? I don't know. Nobody fucking knows. Both scenarios happened, and most likely in very large numbers. Armies are not moral bodies. That's not their job.

This is the problem with this sort of reporting. It's not "anti-Israel" and it's sure as hell not "anti-Semitic;" it's journalism, it's a reporter telling the public what has happened. That is good. And I don't expect reporters to put "the whole picture" into a single 500-word article. But it's telling people what people should already know, without pointing out that they should already know it, and by doing so are preventing them from realizing that in war, horrible things happen, and they're going to happen on both sides.



*Keep your eyes peeled for right-wingers to tout this as evidence that Israel's military is more moral because of its transparency as illustrated by the release of this report.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Energy

So I got a little carried away and posted this on a slashdot article. Its prolly more appropriate here. This is essentially a brief overview of what I have been learning in my Energy & the Environment class. I would love to start a discussion here about energy technologies and their potential use in our future. So here goes.

The economic efficiency of using wind, solar, geothermal and hydro the main renewable energy sources is not a clear cut issue. It depends highly on your particular situation. With oil prices so cheap they are clearly not as good of an option in terms of price per unit of energy output as they were 6 months ago. However there is a lot to consider here.

Hydro is wonderful it has a large onetime ecosystem rearrangement including displacing people but after this point it provides cheap reliable energy when you need it and a reservoir is essentially one of the best batteries we have today. Unfortunately most of the possible large hydro projects have already been built in developed countries.

Wind power is highly dependent on your location. There are many places where it is already an economically competitive energy source and many were it is not or will never be. It does not produce reliable energy however so it must be paired with some energy storage method or a more reliable source.

There are many types of solar energy technologies but mostly I think we are focused on those aimed at producing electricity. If you took all of the solar energy landing on the united states and converted it to electricity at 100% efficiency there is enough energy to meet the entire energy needs of the US roughly 500 times over. Of course solar photovoltaic panels are not very efficient (10-20% in practical uses) and we want sun for other things like growing plants. People are building some large solar plants in places where land is cheap and more people are putting them on their roofs but it is an unreliable source of energy like wind and my understanding is that its usually not very economically practical yet.

There are not very many places where it makes sense to use geothermal energy to create electrical energy. However it can serve as a great heater and cooler in most places.

One of the biggest factors in what energy source is economically practical is government subsidies. There are many more renewable energy projects happening these days because of large government subsidies. Governments can think in the long run and this makes a lot of sense. But currently the largest subsidies go to nonrenewable fossil fuels. If for example all energies had to pay for their environmental impact (say co2 output) rather than being subsidized by public governments renewable energies would become much more economically practical.

One nonrenewable energy source that is relatively friendly environmentally is nuclear. I see this as one of the few technologies that we can switch too quickly that has the potential to meet our energy needs. It won't last for ever especially if we try to do everything with it but there is also a lot of room for research. If we ever figure out how to gain energy from fission to there is a huge potential for energy there.

Well thats the way I see it at least part of it.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

This is...Monetary Expansion

"Stop wasting my time..."
In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term...
"...You know what I want..."
...To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year...
"...You know what I need..."
...and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion.
"...Or maybe you don't..."
Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.
"Do I have to come right flat out and tell you everything?"
The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. (FOMC Statement: Source)
"Give me some monnn-aaaay!"

(Today's Ten Year Treasury Performance: Source)

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Hating AIG Made Easy

I don't have the energy to write a lengthy post about this. But lucky for me, armed with a link and what I'm sure is a fairly predictable and popularly-shared sense of outrage, I hardly think one is necessary either.

It's Monday everyone. Enjoy.

Friday, March 13, 2009

how much wood could a woodchuck chuck?

$11,200,000,000,000. That's the price tag that economists have put on the financial crisis, in terms of asset valuation, for Americans, and that's only for 2008. This is a very large number. It's large enough, in fact, to make me resort to proper capitalization. Now, we've seen a lot of big numbers--$700 billion, $1 trillion, $2 trillion--and, inevitably, will become numb to them. After all, such sums of money are so vast that they might as well be unreal. It isn't like $11,200 billion (that's British shorthand, for all of you yokels) was burned by pa and the boys out by the old creek in December. It's the amount of money that buyers believe American assets are no longer worth. That wouldn't be so bad, if those assets didn't amount to a lot of bubkiss; if, for instance, Americans owned a lot of workshops or, I don't know, ice cream parlors, we could still produce things even if the land and the building wasn't going to command the same price. Too bad we decided to buy real estate, a scheme that has never, ever failed. So now we've got a lot of unproductive assets whose only real value was as expensive collateral for an overly generous credit market. I know that none of this is new to anyone on the blog, or, really, to anyone who's been following the news for the six months. I'm only reiterating it to somehow express my sense of shock and to underscore again how consequential this period of history will be, and for who the bell is gonna toll. European banks might be bunk, but Europeans have productive assets. Their ability to produce goods for which there will be continuing demand guarantees that they will be able to rebuild capital stocks, even if slowly. But America? Once we've hit bottom--and who knows how many more trillions will have to be shed--we're going to be in very bad shape to start climbing again. What do we do with all of these houses? And what do we do when we no longer have so much money on paper to wave around in the world's face? Are we really going to be as attractive an option for investment? How will we even manage the economic structure we've built with ourself, one which does not offer, but demands, heavy borrowing, when our equity has fallen to 30 or 20% of our obligations? How will people go to college--how will they secure financing when they have little or no collateral to offer and schools still expect to be paid a middle manager's salary every year? I'm afraid that hard questions like this won't be asked, or will be answered with the usual bag of tricks and delaying tactics.

In the end, the issue of the day will be whether or not Americans have denuded their capacity for collective action so much that they're unable to engage in the social engineering project of the millenia. I know that this is particularly millenarian and I apologize for the tone, but when you wipe, in a single year, your gross annual output from the books, with the worst yet to come, I don't see how a little soul-searching can be avoided. And to know that the whole social context that you've lived in was built on is completely and irreversibly untenable? What, then?

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Who, Me?

Having had some time to reflect and to contemplate, having distanced himself in both space and time from the paper-strewn hallways of his former domain, having taken up the pen, published and bandied about the press junket with much fan-fair an ominously (if somewhat understated) titled memoir, having then gone so far as to seek what could almost be interpreted to be absolution upon the floor of the United States House of Representatives, Alan Greenspan, former and long-time chairman of the Federal Reserve, has finally emerged from the woodwork of retirement and general ignominy to offer us his final and resolute opinion about this whole financial mess:










"Go blow it out your noses, ya chumps!"

That's right, folks. Like a dedicated Jewish version of Mohammad Ali, Alan Greenspan isn't taken no punches from nobody! In this Wednesday's Wall Street Journal Greenspan laid the stone-cold truth all out on the table. And as he sees things:
There are at least two broad and competing explanations of the origins of this crisis. The first is that the "easy money" policies of the Federal Reserve produced the U.S. housing bubble that is at the core of today's financial mess.
So just for the sake of clarification, this is explanation is the one where everyone blames Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Fed before and during most of the post-9/11 housing bubble, for keeping interest rates too low for far too long and thus allowing too many people to get into too much debt and to buy too many houses which pushes their prices up way too high. So now that we're all clear that this first explanation is the one where despite the hazy static of moral ambiguity and byzantine financial complexity that overwhelms any discussion of the financial crisis, Alan Greenspan emerges in glossy technicolor as one of the only sure deliverers of our collective economic disintegration--an incompetent ideological anachronism, an aging conductor asleep at the switch, a financial hand of death, if you will--let's hear about that other explanation.
The second, and far more credible, explanation...
Okay, so you're saying it isn't the financial hand of death one...
...agrees that it was indeed lower interest rates that spawned the speculative euphoria. However, the interest rate that mattered was not the federal-funds rate, but the rate on long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.
Well, there you have it. It turns out the only interest rate that humble old Al was able to influence was the one that had nothing to do with mortgage rates. So there was a housing bubble: what's a chairman of the Federal Reserve to do?

First a primer for those who may be in need: the Federal-Funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge when they lend money to one another overnight. Why only overnight? At any given moment, a bank may have trillions of dollars liabilities outstanding. Liabilities, all the money that the bank owes to someone else, might mean the money you deposited into your checking account last week, actual debt from financial institution, bonds, etc. While the bank supposedly also has more money tucked away in assets (that is, money that other people owe the bank), those assets may not be readily available at any one point in time. If, for any reason, a bunch of people decide to take money out of the checking accounts at once then, the banks needs cash and it needs it now. So it borrows the money, but just to tide it over to meet the depositors demand (or, in the U.S. but not in Canada, to meet a "reserve requirement," which is just a required amount of money you have to always have on the side equal to a certain percentage of the bank's liabilities). So the bank generally borrows this money from other banks. And it borrows it at the Federal Funds rate.

The Federal Reserve essentially manages the FFR by giving the entire banking system more or less money. When it gives the system more money (by buying securities from the federal funds market), the banks don't need to borrow from one another so much, so it becomes cheaper to borrow and the FFR declines. In theory, this cheapens the cost of borrowing for banks, which makes it so that they can lend out money cheaper to companies and individuals. Likewise, if the Fed takes money out of the system, the banks have to borrow more (perhaps even from the Fed directly), and this makes borrowing more expensive (which again, theoretically translates into more expensive borrowing for everyone).

But according to Alan Greenspan, his manipulation of the Federal Funds rate after 2001 had very little impact on the rates at which banks were lending to home buyers.
The Federal Reserve became acutely aware of the disconnect between monetary policy and mortgage rates when the latter failed to respond as expected to the Fed tightening in mid-2004. Moreover, the data show that home mortgage rates had become gradually decoupled from monetary policy even earlier -- in the wake of the emergence, beginning around the turn of this century, of a well arbitraged global market for long-term debt instruments.
And to give Greenspan his due, he's right. A few weeks ago and for no good reason in particular, Lion and I downloaded a bunch of data which, fancy that, happened to include time series for average 30 year fixed rate mortgages (the most popular kind of mortgage as far as I know, though increasingly less so in recent years) and the effective federal funds rate. Take a look at those wiggly lines and you can see, particular after the FFR increase in 2004, that the two don't seem to follow one another:





If you can't read it, the pink one is the federal funds rate and the blue one is the 30 FRM rate.






So what explains this "decoupling"? According to Alan Greenspan, it was (you guessed it!) those damn Chinese and their damn destabilizing frugality.
the presumptive cause of the world-wide decline in long-term rates was the tectonic shift in the early 1990s by much of the developing world from heavy emphasis on central planning to increasingly dynamic, export-led market competition. The result was a surge in growth in China and a large number of other emerging market economies that led to an excess of global intended savings relative to intended capital investment. That ex ante excess of savings propelled global long-term interest rates progressively lower between early 2000 and 2005.
This is not the first time this argument has been rehashed in this blog. The Chinese held their currency low, we bought a bunch of their stuff, they used all that cash to relend money to us, that made borrowing really cheap and American's can't say no to a deal.

So maybe that's true and maybe that isn't, but the fundamental point still remains: Greenspan was not in control of mortgage rates. Sure there was a bubble and Greenspan even tried to deflate it in 2004! What else can you expect of him?

A Caroline Baum opinion piece in Bloomburg doesn't buy it. Yes, she concedes, perhaps the mortgage rates were out of the Fed's control.
"Control, yes. Influence, no."
To say that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is little more than a high-titled technocrat who occasionally tweaks a solitary rate in the financial system is pretty unbelievable. An infamous example: in 1996, Greenspan gave a speech in which he claimed there to be "irrational exuberance" in stock market activity. Stock prices immediately fell world-wide. The Fed's bully pulpit is a far-reaching one. And throughout his lengthy tenure at the Fed, Greenspan said very little about, say, regulation of financial derivatives, oversight of rating agencies or excessive mortgage securitization.
And when Greenspan did speak up on such matters, it generally followed the predictable line:
US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday [2003] voiced his support for financial derivatives amid widespread scepticisms largely resulted from financial irregularities in recent years. (Source)
And then two years later...
Improved access to credit for consumers, and especially these more-recent developments, has had significant benefits. Unquestionably, innovation and deregulation have vastly expanded credit availability to virtually all income classes. Access to credit has enabled families to purchase homes, deal with emergencies, and obtain goods and services.(Source)
And then finally,
The appropriate policy response is not to bridle financial intermediation with heavy regulation. That would stifle important advances in finance that enhance standards of living.
Actually, this last one is from the Wednesday WSJ article.

But to return just one last time to the nitty-gritty of it, while the fed funds rate and general mortgage rates did seem to be as "decoupled" as Greenspan wrote, we can't always and in every way blame the Chinese as much as we might wish to. Perhaps, as one article I dug up from the early 00s wrote, increased securitization of mortgages by providing banks with much more readily available cash at any one time, made it more difficult for the fed to influence bank behavior by manipulating reserve levels. Securitization in its most "innovative"/excessive form, by the by, that Alan Greenspan was so hesitant to warn us all about.

Or maybe the Fed Funds Rate was neutered by 2004, as Baum writes, because
The real funds rate, which is the nominal rate adjusted for inflation, was negative for three years, from October 2002 to October 2005, a longer stretch than in the mid-1970s.
In other words, after years of free money for the banking system, which certainly helped to pump up the housing bubble, a quick turn around in 2004 couldn't be expected shift general mortgage rates on a dime. By then, housing prices were already spiraling ever upward and so even if the mark-up between the cost of borrowing and the revenue from lending was slightly narrowed, the massive returns from lending to homebuyers justified the sticky mortgage rates.

And above all, even if Greenspan wants to blame Asia's savings glut, a pattern which he traces back to the early 1990s, why then keep borrowing rates low for so long? Even if the link between mortgage and fed rates was weaker than the historical precident, why add fuel to the fire?

So all in all, is Greenspan the boogyman of this financial crisis? Probably not. Does he deserve as much of the blame as so many want to shovel at him? Maybe not. Does it take chutzpah to write such an unspired self-justification in one of America's biggest newspapers? You still got it, Al!

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

A Hopeful Sign?

I just learned (via Facebook, how sad) that Ross Douthat will be taking over the mantle of "conservative op-ed columnist" for the New York Times. I'm surprised, as most of the talk I had heard was that he was too young to take on such a position and needed a couple more years of grinding it out in world of magazine/blog-journalism. I'm also quite pleased; he is a fresh voice, and no matter how much people rag on the New York Times he'll definitely be speaking from a heftier podium. He's a smart writer, not one I always agree with but at least one that makes me think carefully. Beyond that, he's fallen quickly and clearly into the reformist pile in the Republican civil war (see this post, for example, for a good Rush critique), and his general perspective on matters (again, highly disputable) is that Republicans are the natural party of the working class and should stop catering to the business elite as much (this was the apparent impetus, alas, for a brief, embarrassing period of Sarah Palin love).

Anyway, if you want to check out some of his stuff, start here, a very good take-down of last year's cinematic glut of shitty Iraq films, and then head over to his blog.

great inconsistencies in world history

if you missed it, world stock markets did well yesterday. while a 5% jump in the dow is good, it's largely meaningless, except when pundits and other commentators need an excuse to lay pipe into each other's predictions. i expect a rash of counter-disaster articles to sweep us all back to rosy optimism and unrepetant freewheeling until sunday. in the meantime, i just wanted to point out, if you aren't tired of it yet, another great moment in finance irrationality. as reported by the ft this morning, markets are set to rally for a second day in a row, thanks, it is said, to reassuring remarks made by timothy geithner about the government's plans for the economy. what were those remarks, and in which gilded hall of national prestige did he deliver them?

Mr Geithner, speaking in a late night interview on PBS’s “Charlie Rose Show”, said he would “do what is necessary” to stem the recession. He also said the government would use the promise of federal loans to entice investors to buy distressed assets from banks, while offering the sellers capital injections for completing the transactions.
Besides making a slot that competes with Conan into a venue for delivering gomorric revelations in monetary policy, Geithner has also, somehow, managed to turn his talking points into confidence-building gold. when did that happen? wasn't it just a month ago that this kind of talk was used as a public lavatory? look at the headlines: geithner plan wide in scope, short on detail; geithner's plan falls flat; geithner plan: it's not transparent and it's still a bailout. unless i missed something, the treasury secretary's parlee with charlie rose contained only recycled material. so why, all of a sudden, is it leading markets higher? forget the fact that yesterday showed just how desperate things really are--an internal memo circulated by citibank containing projections of its own profitability hitting investors harder than an afternoon cocaine social; finance is so completely inane that the dow is liable to collapse on word that yes, madame obama is too buff.

(physicists think the stock market is crazy, too, by the way)

the only thing left for me to say is something vitriolic about people whose viewpoints i loathe, and nothing fits that bill quite like the economist. i had the opportunity to peruse an issue of that gentlemanly periodical devoted entirely to rational, scientific predictions about 2009 not two days ago. to my indescribable relief, this economic crisis stuff, it turns out, is not really a big deal. the united states economy may be a bit "wobbly" or "shaky," but it is in no way fundamentally impaired, the economic crisis itself being no more than a "slight fluctuation" which could only conceivably get worse if regulations became "excessive and stifling." you're still nervous, you say? you have doubts about the economist's inferential consistency? well, admittedly, mistakes have been made, as they always will be. in its 2008 year-to-come issue, the magazine did predict a soft landing to the slow deflation of the housing bubble, a mild dip in growth by the end of the year followed by a strong recovery in 2009, and the continuing resiliency of the well-capitalized american financial sector. it did not say anything about credit default swaps--only left-wingers hate speculation, and they just never seem to understand the importance of financial innovation--and did not breathe a word about a credit crunch in america or europe. they also appear to have missed the, uh, economic chernobyl which would ultimately call into question all the values that they have held so dear.

these might seem, to the layman, somewhat substantial grounds for criticism, but he or she should really be more generous and ask: what did they get right? well, they knew that the housing bubble would have to give way, at some point. they also knew that, at some point, the american economy would slow down. they even saw that bank of america would be in a strong position to expand by year's end; but, we should be clear, they didn't predict that BoA would also be expanding while on a fed feeding tube. i guess what i'm trying to say is that they provide a very valuable, but very subtle, service. if you're the kind of guy who's never heard the end of the phrase "what goes up, must ..." the economist is the magazine for you. it's there to fill in the blanks. the end of that statement, by the way? it's 'come down.' things come down. and that's why the e-team gets paid the big bucks, mac.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Guilt-tinged follow-up



Well, it's more than just guilt for having returned to my sentence-long posting ways, but I do feel some context is necessary. That and the fact that Financial Times limits unregistered visitors to three articles a month (!), meaning that maybe some of us couldn't even read the article in the first place.

The latest out of Pyongyang is, as I eluded to before, not good. The DPRK has cut off all communications with Seoul, called its army up, and is apparently planning a test launch of one of its hilariously named Taepodong-II missiles. Last December, as a prelude to all this nonsense, North Korea cut off all overland travel between the North and South and shut down the "special economic zone" that existed as one of the DPRK's only real economic connections to the outside world. Why? Well, the answer, as in all things North Korean, is who the fuck knows. Some have speculated that Kim Jong-Il recently suffered from a stroke, and the country is clamming up in preparation for a transition of power (possibly to one of his sons). Others, and I count myself among them, see this as a continuation of the last couple decades of negotiations between North Korea and the international community, with North Korea throwing out some more sound and fury for leverage's sake. Not a good thing at all, but hopefully an understandable one.

The history of the North Korean nuclear issue is long and complex, with lots of dates and agreements, but it has followed a fairly steady diplomatic pattern (discounting the whole Axis of Evil thing) since the early 90s. North Korea, who says its interest in nuclear power is purely peaceful and entirely in keeping with juche, the national ideology of self-reliance, accepts some arrangement of international aid and energy in exchange for IAEA access and admittance to the NPT. Then, the IAEA notes a discrepancy, or a lack of cooperation, or something mysterious. The international community puts some degree of pressure on Pyongyang to acquiesce, North Korea reacts in a very hostile manner, and we all wet ourselves a bit. The CIA concluded in 1994 that North Korea possessed some degree of nuclear technology, and while it is unclear as to whether the Taepodong-II can deliver an atomic payload, it is believed to have a range of 4500 km, which is, according to Google Earth, just shy of Alaska. Adding to all this, North Korea may actually have tested a small nuclear bomb in 2006 (it's been suggested that it was a fake, or even a failure).

Anyway, my cautious and underinformed take on the whole thing is that the DPRK has been very clever in using the leverage it has as international crazy person to get what it wants. They've gotten very very good deals in the past when they've gone to the negotiating table - annual shipments of oil from the United States, aid from China and South Korea, the ability to keep their nuclear power program, etc. - and they may see the threat of nuclear weaponry as the ultimate way to prevent the collapse of their regime from the outside. The trick, though, is that this stuff works well because the actor that could have the most influence, China, only ever puts real pressure on North Korea to comply with international demands when the threat hits a high level of intensity (like in 2006). If (and this is a big if, I understand) China continues its peaceful rise on to the international stage, it may become less and less tolerant of North Korean antics, especially if they constantly have to ratchet up the aggressive posturing to get any attention. In such a theoretical scenario, things could easily spiral out of control, at which point we might actually just find out what the DPRK's been working on out in the garage for the past 30 years.

Monday, March 9, 2009

...And Another Thing

More reasons to start stocking up on cans and ammo.

Friday, March 6, 2009

However You Want to Measure It...

8.1% is the most recent U.S. unemployment statistic being breathlessly thrown around the news. And 8.1% is a high number. How do I know this? Because this time last year it was 4.8% and 8.1 seems a lot higher than 4.8. Even worse, as the Financial Times tells me, 8.1% is the highest the number has been since 1983.

But aside from 8.1 being a relatively high number, its hard to imagine what this kind of statistic is telling us in actual terms. The 8.1% figure is the "official" unemployment level as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The "official" level is that which measures..
Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force
Which seems like a pretty obvious way to look at things. Obviously the unemployment rate should be that percentage of all workers who are unemployed. As it stands, that's about 8 in 100.

But as Lion pointed out to me a few weeks ago, that inglorious group of sorry saps whom the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics sees it fit to bestow with the unhelpful title, "unemployed," is anything but obvious. In the eyes of the U.S. government, if you have lost your job and have been looking for a new one without success for over six months and have given up out of discouragement, you are not "unemployed," but are rather, appropriately enough, a "discouraged worker." "Discouraged workers,"--who really aren't workers at all...that's the point I think--unlike their more recently unemployed brethren, are no longer considered a part of the labor force proper on account of their time out of work. Therefore, discouraged though they may be, this group of people is not counted in the official statistic (called U3, if you care), but rather are lumped into the broader statistical grouping, U4.

As it stands now, U4 is at 8.5.

Overall, there are six major categories of unemployment (U1-U6) which the BLS publishes, the first narrower than the next. At the front is U1, the recently unemployed, count people who have lost their jobs in the last 15 weeks. For what its worth (and this probably isn't worth much), the ratio of recently unemployed to overall unemployed plus discouraged workers (that is, U1/U4), is currently .4, whereas this time last year, it was just a hair over .3. Which may or may not indicate that people are getting laid over at a higher rate since the newly unemployed are counting for a higher proportion of the total than last year. Or it could mean nothing since my sample size is a grand total of 2.

U6 on the other hand, being the broadest category, measures not only those who have no jobs, but also those who have been forced through economic reasons to step down to part time employment, as well as those workers considered "marginally attached"--a broader category of the above explained "discouraged worker" group. U6 isn't necessarily more helpful or more descriptive than any of the other categories, it's just broader. Not strictly limited to the unemployed, U6 might be thought of as a general measure of how many people who are either working or looking for work are feeling the pinch (excluding wage or salary cuts). U6 is the index of overall shitiness in the labor market. Right now the U.S. is standing at 14.8; this time last year, it was 9%.

And if that seems high, first, it is. But not as high in relative terms as is the official U3 statistic. U3 is higher than its been since 1983, whereas U6 levels now are comparable to 1994 levels. Unfortunately, unless my reasoning is wrong here, this may imply that there is actually less flexibility in the labor market since the current recession is translating into higher levels of strict unemployment, whereas in '94, less people were losing their jobs and more were simply taking part-time work.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

bets, please, place your bets

the dow is at 6,500 after shedding 4% today. how low do people think it will go? as a side note, after shedding 89% of its value from 1929 to 1932, the dow did not recover its pre-crash volume peak until 1968. any guesses on how many counts it'll take before the market gets up and starts punching again?

Moustache of Understanding, continued

I feel like my previous post was a little short. Making fun of Thomas Friedman is almost absurdly easy, and Friedman smackdowns are a dime a dozen. That said, I don't feel right just glibly tossing out a one sentence post; Friedman, for all his one-sentence platitudes and vapidities, deserves more than he gives.

A couple of years ago, Matt Welch called Friedman's latest magnum opus, The World is Flat, "an embarrassing reverie of self-discovery". Embarrassing both for the simplicity and superficiality of his revelations and for the absolute, unbelievable, thundering wrongedness of them. In some ways, Friedman is like a goldfish. A well-paid, well-respected goldfish. As the article I posted earlier pointed out, the man makes heart-stoppingly bad predictions, generalizations, and conclusions about the world around them, changes those conclusions every 6 months or so (I don't remember where I saw it, but someone tracked his Iraq-centric editorials, and they are possibly the most flagrant examples of this). As the scope of his sloganeering increases, so too does his ability to generate meaningless, abstract extrapolations. He'll spend a day golfing in India with a CEO and have a resulting eureka moment that the entire fucking world is so economically and politically integrated as to render geography irrelevant. Then, 3 years later, as the global system lurches drunkenly into a swamp of debt and inflation, the man is still paid good money and good attention to coin horrible one-liners that do nothing but obscure the complexity of real international situations. And if this weren't enough to earn him heaping piles of deserved scorn, I don't think he's ever publicly expressed humility over his various predictions. Only someone who could be wrong as consistently as he is could carry himself with the amount of confidence and self-certainty that he does. Ben posted this video before, but it is too perfect a summation of all of his worst qualities as a journalist for me not to include it. The shallowness. The smugness. The conceit of having reached a dramatic ground-breaking conclusion. It's all there, piled endlessly like a quadruple-bypass burger of idiocy. Ladies and gentleman: Suck. On. This:



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As a side note, we should all pick our least favourite New York Times editorialists and vent a little. It's much more therapeutic to write it out than to semi-drunkenly moan and groan every couple of months when one of us brings it up.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Moustache of Understanding Alert

Just like we've been saying, over and over and over again.

Here Comes The Cavalry Again

The U.S. Department of Treasury has just released details on its mortgage modification plan. For a link to the actual PDFs (replete with typos by the by), click here. Otherwise, here's a brief summary as far as I can understand it:

The plan is separated into three components: 1) the "Home Affordable Refinance Program," 2) the "Home Affordable Modification Program" and 3) the plan to "Support Low Mortgage Rates". I can only imagine that the Yoda-esque syntax is employed to inspire confidence.

Part 1: The Home Affordable Refinance Program:
  • Homeowners who owe more than 80% the value on their home (e.g. someone who owes $450,000 on a $500,000 home) and who took out loans owned or guaranteed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will be eligible to refinance through either of those two companies.
  • Refinancing allows borrowers to renegotiate the interest rate of the loan and/or to fix rates that are currently adjustable. I don't think this allows people to reduce the premium, but I only say this because such a provision isn't mentioned explicitly.
  • With 20% of homeowners now "underwater" (owing more than 100% of the value of their home due to falling house prices) and Fannie and Freddie stand behind about half of all mortgages in the U.S. (and probably a substantially higher proportion of troubled ones, since their mandate is to buy and ensure mortgages made to lower income borrowers), the Obama people estimate that this portion of the plan will directly effect 4-5 million borrowers.
Part 2: the Home Affordable Modification Program
  • Lenders will be encouraged to reduce all mortgage rates so that monthly payments do not exceed 38% of the borrowers monthly income. The rates will then be lowered further at the cost of the U.S. government until the debt-t0-income ratio is reduced to 31%. Rates will then be capped for five-years and restricted in rate growth of 1% a year afterward.
  • As far as I understand it, compliance with the above plan isn't mandated. Instead, servicers (those who manage and collect debt payments) will received $1000 per modification, plus $1000 annually for the next three years assuming the loan is still performing (i.e. the borrower has not defaulted).
  • Additional payments to both servicers and borrowers will be added if the loan is restructured before the first missed payment. The rational here is that "loan modifications are more likely to succeed if they are made before a borrower misses a payment." I don't know why that would be the case, but let's assume that's true.
  • At the moment, because house prices are expected to decline for some time, there is an incentive to foreclose and sell off the asset now, rather than to wait for prices to decline further. To offset that incentive, servicers and mortgage holders who remodify will be partially compensated for subsequent home price declines.
Part 3: Supporting Low Mortgage Rates
  • Using previously allocated money (Housing and Economic Recovery Act), the Treasury will further subsidize Freddie and Fannie to buy mortgages from private banks, thus freeing up liquidity and, hopefully, keeping down mortgage rates.
  • The Treasury will step up its purchases of Fannie and Freddie securities, similarly freeing up liquidity for those two GSEs.
  • Increasing the amount of mortgages that Fannie and Freddie can hold at one time and expanding their level of allowable debt outstanding

And that, as far as I can interpret it or bother to read, is that. Overall, it seems like a good plan, though obviously the devil of our impending financial ruin will be in the details (and in the potential incompetence with which the whole thing is executed).

If I may add one more point, and one which came up in a conversation between Dave, Lion and I in Barcelona--wooo! Barcelona! Chorizo shots for everyone!--home price stability is secondary in importance to relative income stability. As I wrote before, because home prices are falling so quickly, 20% of all homeowners owe more on their mortgages than they could realistically expect to get by selling their home. While this is certainly a scary statistic, debt isn't necessary a big problem as long as it can be paid back. This is particularly true in the case of the modern mortgage industry, where a series of defaults on home loans will not only wipe out borrowers and lenders, but insurance underwriters and secondary market sellers and unwitting mortgage backed security holders and...

The central problem is not falling home prices--falling prices are a symptom of an inability on the part of borrowers to payback loans and of a desperation on the part of lenders to get their hands on some much needed cash. In any event, only now are nation-wide home prices starting to descend from the twilight zone which they have blissfully inhabited for the past six years. Instead, our priority should be to keep debt payments in line with income declines and, on a macro level, to keep people from losing their jobs. As far as I can tell, the plan summarized above seems to address the former issue fairly well, but I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

could the fan get any more shit on it?

i initially posted this article from bloomberg.com in a response to one of ben's comments on my last post. now, having read it, i realize that it is more than just mildly pertinent to the corporate bond issue; it may, in fact, be the next leg of the financial meltdown. public pension funds in the united states are $1 trillion below their obligations, and that isn't a side effect of the past few months. these funds have been underwater for more than a decade, and it looks like they've been doing their best to sink even faster by taking extremely dangerous stop-gap measures. what is the chief among these? bond issuances.

as an bit of political economy, i think this fiasco is particularly enlightening. public pension funds, as we all know, are meant to manage the retirement funds of public employees. most came into being after the second world war, during america's brief flirtation with, you know, helping people. along those (gasp!) socialist lines, it was written into law that public pensions were not allowed to fail. if there was ever a shortfall in available funds, state legislatures were to make up for it. those same legislatures, however, for reasons no doubt specific to time and place, yet somehow generally consistent, have consistently denied public funds to pensions.

short-changed and yet unable to bottom out, these pensions turned to the easiest ways to plug the holes in their balance sheets. as we've seen in private sector, the solution which everyone seems to have picked was bonds. they then issued those bonds at 6% interest, and promised beneficiaries, and the state, that they would make 8% returns on the new capital. 8% is generous by anyone's standards, and it was particularly generous given the history of these funds: california's public employees' pension, for instance, has averaged 3.3% a year for the last twenty years. what bonds did let pensions do was coast through another fiscal year. unfortunately, they coasted right into an even deeper hole the next.

at this point, that hole is very, very deep, and it is common to even the most successful of plans--new jersey, a poster child for sound fiscal management in the 90's, is now in the hole by nearly 20%. new jersey doesn't even look that bad next to other states: chicago's CTA is underfunded by 62 percent, and puerto rico's got cash in hand for only 19% of its promises to public employees. all of this money is going to have be made up by states, which means that all of it will come from the federal government. now, none of this will be instantaneous, but it will become more urgent now that credit is tight and states are reeling. adding $1 trillion to washington's obligations is not good, not with all of the other things we're going to have to pay for.

what this article really does for me is highlight the urgency what's happening with corporate bonds. while they can, with proper planning, work out spectaculary, bond issuances can also be a substitute for good business. i'm almost positive that when the next quarterly earnings reports are out, bond markets are going to be sent reeling, and the result is going to be the disappearance of capital from an already squeezed capital market. the same just isn't true of government securities. money put into t-bills goes almost directly into the goverment's purse, which means that it will go into much-needed fiscal stimulus. by contrast, with corporations still on a spending freeze (look here for more on that), the money being raised isn't producing any economic benefits, and there simply aren't any investments to put the new cash in that would cover interest payments with profit. 1929, you got nothing on the two double-oh's.

the answer to all of our problems

in brief: islamic finance. that, anyway, is the medicine that the world islamic economic forum has prescribed. what is islamic finance, and what makes it mor ethan the average bear? in brief, sharia law forbids loaning money at interest. while this sort of stuff might get no more than a chuckle out of us, it is a fact that islamic finance is extremely popular and represents a significant capital pool. hong kong's premier, david tsang, has made it a major policy goal to turn hong kong into a hub of sharia-compliant banking. these islamic banks, forced to avoid usury, have come up with some innovative methods of finance; and while some of these might boil down to loaning at interest, others, such as capital partnerships (in which the bank and the borrower both provide collateral at agreed-upon rates, therefore assuming a certain percentage of ownership), will probably be very attractive globally. given the bruising our financial model has taken, i'd expect not only islamic finance, but other, regional systems, to increase their visibility. the times, my friends, they do not hesitate to go a-changing.